Science can map a solution to a fast-burning problem.
نویسنده
چکیده
ain has fallen on the explosive wildfire that ripped through the Fort McMurray region of Canada last month, but the inferno is likely to burn until the snow falls later in the year. The raging fire was a true force of nature. It sent out embers that skipped natural barriers such as the Athabasca River, hundreds of metres wide, and created its own weather system: pyrocumulus clouds that generated lightning, which ignited another fire some 30 kilometres away. The fire was unstoppable. Unfortunately, the largest residential community in the Cana-dian boreal forest was in its way, and the resulting scenes of devas-tation drew attention from around the world. The fire is projected to be the costliest natural disaster in the nation's modern history. A repeat of last month's scenes is unacceptable, so what can be done? One thing is certain: there is now a tacit understanding among all Canadians that something must change. Science has the tools to drive that change. Canada and other fire-prone regions should develop new maps of fire risk and use them to guide development and mitigation efforts. Similar maps are already produced around the world for areas prone to flooding and earthquakes, and it is unfortunate that so little has been done so far to measure wildfire risk. This is especially true across Canada, where hundreds of communities embed themselves in one of the most flammable places on Earth. Wildfire spreads through a boreal forest with a speed and intensity not seen in other landscapes. But a fire's impact depends on factors that we can measure. With data on fire ignitions , weather, vegetation and topography, we can build models to demonstrate how we expect a region to burn should it catch fire. These can show two things that are important to guide policy: the probability of burning, and the likely fire intensity. The first shows the chances of a fire taking hold, and the second indicates how severe the consequences will be. These maps show which areas, if they ignite, will burn at such a high temperature that attempts to fight the fire will never succeed. The only option is to evacuate, or not to live there in the first place. The maps can also identify parts of the forest where, because of the nature of the landscape and flora, fire would be easier to prevent and tackle. This knowledge can be used to …
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عنوان ژورنال:
- Nature
دوره 534 7607 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2016